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Enrico Zio Uncertainty in Risk Assessment


Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.

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Terje Aven Risk Analysis


Risk Analysis, Second Edition Terje Aven, University of Stavanger, Norway A practical guide to the varied challenges presented in the ever-growing field of risk analysis. Risk Analysis presents an accessible and concise guide to performing risk analysis, in a wide variety of field, with minimal prior knowledge required. Forming an ideal companion volume to Aven's previous Wiley text Foundations of Risk Analysis, it provides clear recommendations and guidance in the planning, execution anduse of risk analysis. This new edition presents recent developments related to risk conceptualization, focusing on related issues on risk assessment and their application. New examples are also featured to clarify the reader's understanding in the application of risk analysis and the risk analysis process. Key features: Fully updated to include recent developments related to risk conceptualization and related issues on risk assessments and their applications. Emphasizes the decision making context of risk analysis rather than just computing probabilities Demonstrates how to carry out predictive risk analysis using a variety of case studies and examples. Written by an experienced expert in the field, in a style suitable for both industrial and academic audiences. This book is ideal for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and physical sciences. Managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty will also benefit from this book.

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Terje Aven Foundations of Risk Analysis


Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis – understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes: An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and describe risk based on research carried out in recent years. A new definition of the concept of vulnerability consistent with the understanding of risk. Reflections on the need for seeing beyond probabilities to measure/describe uncertainties. A presentation and discussion of a method for assessing the importance of assumptions (uncertainty factors) in the background knowledge that the subjective probabilities are based on A brief introduction to approaches that produce interval (imprecise) probabilities instead of exact probabilities. In addition the new version provides a number of other improvements, for example, concerning the use of cost-benefit analyses and the As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) principle. Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty.

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Terje Aven Misconceptions of Risk


We all face risks in a variety of ways, as individuals, businesses and societies. The discipline of risk assessment and risk management is growing rapidly and there is an enormous drive for the implementation of risk assessment methods and risk management in organizations. There are great expectations that these tools provide suitable frameworks for obtaining high levels of performance and balance different concerns such as safety and costs. The analysis and management of risk are not straightforward. There are many challenges. The risk discipline is young and there area a number of ideas, perspectives and conceptions of risk out there. For example many analysts and researchers consider it appropriate to base their risk management policies on the use of expected values, which basically means that potential losses are multiplied with their associated consequences. However, the rationale for such a policy is questionable. A number of such common conceptions of risk are examined in the book, related to the risk concept, risk assessments, uncertainty analyses, risk perception, the precautionary principle, risk management and decision making under uncertainty. The Author discusses these concepts, their strenghts and weaknesses, and concludes that they are often better judged as misconceptions of risk than conceptions of risk. Key Features: Discusses common conceptions of risk with supporting examples. Provides recommendations and guidance to risk analysis and risk management. Relevant for all types of applications, including engineering and business. Presents the Author’s overall conclusions on the issues addressed throughout the book. All those working with risk-related problems need to understand the fundamental ideas and concepts of risk. Professionals in the field of risk, as well as researchers and graduate sutdents will benefit from this book. Policy makers and business people will also find this book of interest.

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Philippe Weber Data Uncertainty and Important Measures


The first part of the book defines the concept of uncertainties and the mathematical frameworks that will be used for uncertainty modeling. The application to system reliability assessment illustrates the concept. In the second part, evidential networks as a new tool to model uncertainty in reliability and risk analysis is proposed and described. Then it is applied on SIS performance assessment and in risk analysis of a heat sink. In the third part, Bayesian and evidential networks are used to deal with important measures evaluation in the context of uncertainties.

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Terje Aven Misconceptions of Risk


We all face risks in a variety of ways, as individuals, businesses and societies. The discipline of risk assessment and risk management is growing rapidly and there is an enormous drive for the implementation of risk assessment methods and risk management in organizations. There are great expectations that these tools provide suitable frameworks for obtaining high levels of performance and balance different concerns such as safety and costs. The analysis and management of risk are not straightforward. There are many challenges. The risk discipline is young and there area a number of ideas, perspectives and conceptions of risk out there. For example many analysts and researchers consider it appropriate to base their risk management policies on the use of expected values, which basically means that potential losses are multiplied with their associated consequences. However, the rationale for such a policy is questionable. A number of such common conceptions of risk are examined in the book, related to the risk concept, risk assessments, uncertainty analyses, risk perception, the precautionary principle, risk management and decision making under uncertainty. The Author discusses these concepts, their strenghts and weaknesses, and concludes that they are often better judged as misconceptions of risk than conceptions of risk. Key Features: Discusses common conceptions of risk with supporting examples. Provides recommendations and guidance to risk analysis and risk management. Relevant for all types of applications, including engineering and business. Presents the Author’s overall conclusions on the issues addressed throughout the book. All those working with risk-related problems need to understand the fundamental ideas and concepts of risk. Professionals in the field of risk, as well as researchers and graduate sutdents will benefit from this book. Policy makers and business people will also find this book of interest.

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Terje Aven Knowledge in Risk Assessment and Management


Exciting new developments in risk assessment and management Risk assessment and management is fundamentally founded on the knowledge available on the system or process under consideration. While this may be self-evident to the laymen, thought leaders within the risk community have come to recognize and emphasize the need to explicitly incorporate knowledge (K) in a systematic, rigorous, and transparent framework for describing and modeling risk. Featuring contributions by an international team of researchers and respected practitioners in the field, this book explores the latest developments in the ongoing effort to use risk assessment as a means for characterizing knowledge and/or lack of knowledge about a system or process of interest. By offering a fresh perspective on risk assessment and management, the book represents a significant contribution to the development of a sturdier foundation for the practice of risk assessment and for risk-informed decision making. How should K be described and evaluated in risk assessment? How can it be reflected and taken into account in formulating risk management strategies? With the help of numerous case studies and real-world examples, this book answers these and other critical questions at the heart of modern risk assessment, while identifying many practical challenges associated with this explicit framework. This book, written by international scholars and leaders in the field, and edited to make coverage both conceptually advanced and highly accessible: Offers a systematic, rigorous and transparent perspective and framework on risk assessment and management, explicitly strengthening the links between knowledge and risk Clearly and concisely introduces the key risk concepts at the foundation of risk assessment and management Features numerous cases and real-world examples, many of which focused on various engineering applications across an array of industries Knowledge of Risk Assessment and Management is a must-read for risk assessment and management professionals, as well as graduate students, researchers and educators in the field. It is also of interest to policy makers and business people who are eager to gain a better understanding of the foundations and boundaries of risk assessment, and how its outcomes should be used for decision-making.

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William Toscano A. Risk Assessment for Environmental Health


Written by experts in the field, this important book provides an introduction to current risk assessment practices and procedures and explores the intrinsic complexities, challenges, and controversies associated with analysis of environmental health risks. Environmental Health Risk Assessment for Public Health offers 27 substantial chapters on risk-related topics that include: What Is Risk and Why Study Risk Assessment The Risk Assessment–Risk Management Paradigm Risk Assessment and Regulatory Decision-Making in Environmental Health Toxicological Basis of Risk Assessment The Application of PBPK Modeling to Risk Assessment Probabilistic Models to Characterize Aggregate and Cumulative Risk Molecular Basis of Risk Assessment Comparative Risk Assessment Occupational Risk Radiological Risk Assessment Microbial Risk Assessment Children’s Risk Assessment Life Cycle Risk Environmental Laws and Regulations Precautionary Principles Risk Communication

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Jens Zinn O. Social Theories of Risk and Uncertainty


Written by leading experts in the field, Social Theories of Risk and Uncertainty is an introduction to mainstream theorizing on risk and uncertainty in sociology. Provides an overview of the historical developments and conceptual aspects of risk Identifies why theorizing on risk is necessary and highlights specific sociological contributions to this field of research Explores key topics including risk society and reflexive modernization, culture and risk, governmentality and risk, systems theory and risk, and edgework and voluntary risk taking Offers a comprehensive look at the promises, pitfalls, and perspectives of risk theorizing

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Группа авторов Handbook of Recidivism Risk / Needs Assessment Tools


Provides comprehensive coverage on recidivism risk/needs assessment tools Correctional and healthcare professionals around the world utilize structured instruments referred to as risk/needs assessment tools to predict the likelihood that an offender will recidivate. Such tools have been found to provide accurate and reliable evaluations and are widely used to assess, manage, and monitor offenders both institutionally as well as in the community. By identifying offenders in need of different levels of intervention, examining causal risk factors, and individualizing case management plans, risk/needs assessment tools have proven invaluable in addressing the public health issue of recidivism. Recidivism Risk/Needs Assessment Tools brings together the developers of the most commonly-used risk/needs assessment tools to provide a comprehensive overview of their development, peer-reviewed research literature, and practical application. Written by the leading professionals in the field of risk/needs assessment, the book provides chapters on: Recidivism Risk Assessment in the 21st Century; Performance of Recidivism Risk Assessment Instruments in Correctional Settings; Correctional Offender Management Profiles for Alternative Sanctions (COMPAS); the Federal Post-Conviction Risk Assessment Instrument; the Inventory of Offender Risks, Needs, and Strengths (IORNS); the Level of Service (LS) Instruments; the Ohio Risk Assessment System (ORAS); the Self-Appraisal Questionnaire (SAQ); the Service Planning Instrument (SPIn); the Static Risk Offender Needs Guide-Revised (STRONG-R); the Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS); the Forensic Operationalized Therapy/Risk Evaluation System (FOTRES); the RisCanvi; and more. Systematically identifies currently-validated recidivism risk/needs assessment tools Reviews research on recidivism risk/needs assessment tools used internationally Each chapter presents sufficient detail to decide whether a given recidivism risk/needs assessment tool is right for your practice Recidivism Risk/Needs Assessment Tools is ideal for correctional, probation and parole, and behavioral health professionals.

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Uncertainty in Risk Assessment : The Representation and ...

[(Uncertainty in Risk Assessment : The Representation and Treatment of Uncertainties by Probabilistic and Non-Probabilistic Methods)] [By (author) Terje Aven ] published on (February, 2014) | Terje Aven | ISBN: | Kostenloser Versand für alle Bücher mit Versand und Verkauf duch Amazon.

Uncertainty in Risk Assessment (eBook, PDF) von Piero ...

Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.

Representing and expressing uncertainties and risk in a scientific context (Terje Aven)

Prof. Terje Aven (University of Stavanger, Norway) held his presentation “Representing and expressing uncertainties and risk in a scientific context”. This presentation belongs to topic ...

Aven, Terje - UiS

Aven, Terje (2001). Reliability analysis as a tool for expressing and communicating uncertainty. Aven, Terje (2001). Risk analysis- a tool for expressing and communicating uncertainty. Aven, Terje; Njå, Ove (2001). Using the predictive epistemic uncertainty approach to risk analysis in the design against catastrophic events. 2001-06-18 - 2001 ...

Uncertainty in Risk Assessment : Terje Aven : 9781118489581

Uncertainty in Risk Assessment by Terje Aven, 9781118489581, available at Book Depository with free delivery worldwide.

Terje AVEN | University of Stavanger (UiS), Stavanger

Terje Aven Reliability engineering is today a well-established field, accounting for many scientific journals and conferences, educational programmes and courses, academic positions and societies.

Representing and expressing uncertainties and risk in a ...

Terje Aven, University of Stavanger, Norway . Representing and expressing uncertainties and risk in a scientific context. International Conference on Uncertainty in Risk Analysis, February 20–22, 2019, Berlin . Aven, T. (2017) Further reflections on EFSA’s work on uncertainties in scientific assessments. J. Risk research

International Conference on Uncertainty in Risk Analysis ...

Terje Aven, University of Stavanger, Norway 10:20 – 10:55 am Coffee break and poster viewing Topic IV: Accounting for uncertainty in decision making 10:55 – 11:25 am Key lecture Reflections on framing and making decisions in the face of uncertainty M. Granger Morgan, Carnegie Mellon University, USA 11:25 – 11:45 am Scenario comprehensiveness in risk analysis Edoardo Tosoni, Aalto ...

CV Terje Aven - UiS

CV Terje Aven Born: 1956, Nationality: Norwegian, Degrees: Master's degree (cand. real) and PhD (dr. philos) in Mathematical Statistics and Risk/Reliability Analysis from the University of Oslo, 1980 and 1984, respectively. Professor of Risk Analysis and Risk Management at the University of Stavanger (UiS) (1992-). Aven is Editor-in-Chief of Journal of Risk and Reliabilty, and Area Editor of ...

Risk Analysis | Terje Aven | download

Terje Aven, University of Stavanger, Norway A practical guide to the varied challenges presented in the ever-growing field of risk analysis. Risk Analysis presents an accessible and concise guide to performing risk analysis, in a wide variety of field, with minimal prior knowledge required.

Risk Analysis: Assessing Uncertainties Beyond Expected ...

Terje Aven is Professor of risk analysis and risk management at the University of Stavanger, and a Principle Researcher at the International Research Institute of Stavanger (IRIS).

(PDF) Expressing and communicating uncertainty in relation ...

Lack of knowledge will result in additional 6 uncertainty in the PRA results, known as "epistemic uncertainty" (Helton and Burmaster, 1996), (Helton et al., 2004), 7 (Flage and Aven, 2009). It is ...

Aven Terje Aven | Piero BArAldi | roger FlAge | enrico Zio ...

Aven, Terje, author. Uncertainty in risk assessment : the representation and treatment of uncertainties by probabilistic and non-probabilistic methods / Terje Aven, Piero Baraldi, Roger Flage, Enrico Zio. pages cm Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-118-48958-1 (hardback) 1. Risk assessment–Statistical methods. 2. Probabilities. I. Title. HD61.A947 2014 338.5–dc23 ...

Uncertainty in Risk Assessment | Wiley Online Books

Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory.

The flaws of the ISO 31000 conceptualisation of risk ...

Terje Aven. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability 2017 231: 5, 467-468 Share. Share. Social Media; Email; Share Access; Share this article via social media. The e-mail addresses that you supply to use this service will not be used for any other purpose without your consent. Recommend to a friend Email a link to the following content ...

‪Terje Aven‬ - ‪Google Scholar‬

Terje Aven. University of Stavanger, Norway. Verified email at uis.no - Homepage. Articles Cited by. Title. Sort. Sort by citations Sort by year Sort by title. Cited by. Cited by. Year; Foundations of risk analysis. T Aven. Wiley, 2003. 731 * 2003: On risk defined as an event where the outcome is uncertain. T Aven, O Renn. Journal of Risk Research 12 (1), 1-11, 2009. 715: 2009: Risk assessment ...

Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: ebook jetzt bei Weltbild.de

Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and ...

Uncertainty treatment in risk analysis of complex systems ...

Reduce uncertainty by better modeling of the system. B. Characterize uncertainty better. In case A, the accuracy of the model is important, but there will always be uncertainty about how well the model matches the system's behavior. In case B the key focus is exactly this uncertainty; the accuracy of the model is of less importance, yet better ...

Uncertainty in Risk Assessment - Terje Aven, Piero Baraldi ...

Pris: 729 kr. Inbunden, 2014. Skickas inom 7-10 vardagar. Köp Uncertainty in Risk Assessment av Terje Aven, Piero Baraldi, Roger Flage, Enrico Zio på Bokus.com.

Quantitative Risk Assessment by Terje Aven

Aven, T. and Guikema, S. (2010) Whose uncertainty assessments (probability distributions) does a risk assessment report: the analysts' or the experts'? Paper revised and resubmitted to Reliability Engineering and System Safety.

Uncertainty - Prof Terje Haukaas

Professor Terje Haukaas The University of British Columbia, Vancouver terje.civil.ubc.ca Uncertainty Updated January 27, 2020 Page 1 Uncertainty The concept of uncertainty is philosophically interesting and practically consequential. All humans face uncertainty but we react to it in different ways. Uncertainty permeates most human endeavours and we often find ourselves making decisions under ...

Misconceptions of Risk: Amazon.de: Terje Aven ...

Terje Aven takes nineteen popular misconceptions about risk and analyses them thoroughly. By doing this he manages to address a myriad of issues and theories related to risk without writing a (boring) text book. Aven manages to explain Bayesian analysis, utility theory (Bernouilli!), risk perception, expert elicitation, decision making (Kahneman!), the precautionary principle, and so on, and ...

Knowledge in risk assessment and management | Aven, Terje ...

Aven, Terje, Zio, Enrico. Year: 2018. Publisher: John Wiley & Sons. Language: english. Pages: 346. ISBN 10: 1119317932. ISBN 13: 9781119317906. File: PDF, 4.12 MB. Preview. Send-to-Kindle or Email . Please login to your account first; Need help? Please read our short guide how to send a book to Kindle. Save for later. You may be interested in Powered by Rec2Me Most frequently terms ...

Uncertainty in Risk Assessment - Ebok - Aven Terje Aven ...

Pris: 829 kr. E-bok, 2013. Laddas ned direkt. Köp Uncertainty in Risk Assessment av Aven Terje Aven, Baraldi Piero Baraldi, Flage Roger Flage, Zio Enrico Zio på Bokus.com.

Amazon.com: Terje Aven: Books

Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: The Representation and Treatment of Uncertainties by Probabilistic and Non-Probabilistic Methods. by Terje Aven , Piero Baraldi , et al. | Feb 3, 2014. 5.0 out of 5 stars 1. Hardcover $86.51 $ 86. 51 $105.00 $105.00. $3.99 shipping. Only 10 left in stock - order soon. More Buying Choices $85.88 (16 used & new offers) Kindle $85.97 $ 85. 97 $105.00 $105.00. Risk ...

On Different Types of Uncertainties in the Context of the ...

Few policies for risk management have created more controversy than the precautionary principle. A main problem is the extreme number of different definitions and interpretations. Almost all defini...

Risk assessment and risk management: Review of recent ...

The uncertainty-founded risk perspectives (e.g. Aven et al., 2014, Aven and Renn, 2009, ISO, 2009a, ISO, 2009b, PSA-N, 2015) indicate that we should also include the pure probability-based perspectives, as the uncertainties are not sufficiently revealed for these perspectives; see also discussion in Section 4. By starting from the overall qualitative risk concept, we acknowledge that any tool ...

Knowledge in Risk Assessment and Management

Terje Aven 6 127Completeness Uncertainty: Conceptual Clarification and Treatment Torbjørn Bjerga, Terje Aven, and Roger Flage 7 143Quality of Risk Assessment: Definition and Verification Terje Aven and Enrico Zio. vi Contents 8 Knowledge‐driven System Simulation for Scenario ...

"How risk science can support decision-making under uncertainty" by Terje Aven

Risk science: how can it give concrete support to decision making? Watch Terje Aven from Stavanger University present his lecture from the Global Challenges Science Week #GCSW19 In this talk, he ...

Amazon.com: Foundations of Risk Analysis (9781119966975 ...

by Terje Aven (Author) 5.0 out of 5 stars 1 rating. ISBN-13: 978-1119966975. ISBN-10: 9781119966975. Why is ISBN important? ISBN ... (uncertainty factors) in the background knowledge that the subjective probabilities are based on; A brief introduction to approaches that produce interval (imprecise) probabilities instead of exact probabilities. In addition the new version provides a number of ...

Uncertainty in Risk Assessment : Terje Aven : 9781118489581

Uncertainty in Risk Assessment por Terje Aven, 9781118489581, disponible en Book Depository con envío gratis.

Misconceptions of Risk: Aven, Terje: Amazon.sg: Books

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Uncertainty in Risk Assessment von Terje Aven, Enrico Zio, Piero Baraldi - Englische Bücher zum Genre Mathematik günstig & portofrei bestellen im Online Shop von Ex Libris.

Risk Analysis (eBook, PDF) von Terje Aven - Portofrei bei ...

This book is ideal for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and physical sciences. Managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty will also benefit from this book.

Autor: terje aven | che-chandler.de

Der Zug der Erinnerung, die Deutsche Bahn und der Kampf gegen das Vergessen

Aktuelle forskningsutfordringer innenfor risikoområdet

Terje Aven Universitetet i Stavanger ESRA Norge seminar UiS, 8 Oktober 2012 . Workshop on Foundational issues in risk assessment and risk management Hotel Laurin in Salò, Milano, Italy, 3-4 August 2012 . Terje Aven, University of Stavanger, Norway Lee B. Clarke, Rutgers University, USA Tony Cox, Cox Associates, USA Seth Guikema, John Hopkins University, USA Elisabeth Paté-Cornell, Stanford ...

Uncertainty in Risk Assessment - Terje Aven - innbundet ...

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ESRA Webinar 17 March “What is Risk?” by Terje Aven

Aven, T. (2014) Risk, Surprises and Black Swans: Fundamental Ideas and Concepts in Risk Assessment and Risk Management. London: Routledge. Flage, R. and Aven, T. (2009) Expressing and communicating uncertainty in relation to quantitative risk analysis (QRA). Reliability and Risk Analysis: Theory and Applications, 2(13), 9-18.

Uncertainty in risk assessment: the representation and ...

Aven, Terje. Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental ...

Aven | Quantitative Risk Assessment | Buch | sack.de

Quantitative Risk Assessment, Aven, 2011, 1. Auflage 2011, Buch Bücher portofrei persönlicher Service online bestellen beim Fachhändler

A Conceptual Foundation for Assessing and Managing Risk ...

Terje Aven; Open Access. Chapter. First Online: 01 August 2017. 7.9k Downloads; Part of the SpringerBriefs in Applied Sciences and Technology book series (BRIEFSAPPLSCIENCES) Abstract. This chapter presents and discusses some recent advances in the risk field, linked to the conceptualisation of risk and specifically addressing unforeseen events, surprises and so-called black swans. It shows ...

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Foundations of Risk Analysis: Aven, Terje: Amazon.sg: Books

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Knowledge in Risk Assessment and Management von Terje Aven, Enrico Zio (ISBN 978-1-119-31793-7) online kaufen | Sofort-Download - lehmanns.de

Matt Sekerke Bayesian Risk Management. A Guide to Model Risk and Sequential Learning in Financial Markets


A risk measurement and management framework that takes model risk seriously Most financial risk models assume the future will look like the past, but effective risk management depends on identifying fundamental changes in the marketplace as they occur. Bayesian Risk Management details a more flexible approach to risk management, and provides tools to measure financial risk in a dynamic market environment. This book opens discussion about uncertainty in model parameters, model specifications, and model-driven forecasts in a way that standard statistical risk measurement does not. And unlike current machine learning-based methods, the framework presented here allows you to measure risk in a fully-Bayesian setting without losing the structure afforded by parametric risk and asset-pricing models. Recognize the assumptions embodied in classical statistics Quantify model risk along multiple dimensions without backtesting Model time series without assuming stationarity Estimate state-space time series models online with simulation methods Uncover uncertainty in workhorse risk and asset-pricing models Embed Bayesian thinking about risk within a complex organization Ignoring uncertainty in risk modeling creates an illusion of mastery and fosters erroneous decision-making. Firms who ignore the many dimensions of model risk measure too little risk, and end up taking on too much. Bayesian Risk Management provides a roadmap to better risk management through more circumspect measurement, with comprehensive treatment of model uncertainty.

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Wenyuan Li Risk Assessment of Power Systems


Extended models, methods, and applications in power system risk assessment Risk Assessment of Power Systems: Models, Methods, and Applications, Second Edition fills the gap between risk theory and real-world application. Author Wenyuan Li is a leading authority on power system risk and has more than twenty-five years of experience in risk evaluation. This book offers real-world examples to help readers learn to evaluate power system risk during planning, design, operations, and maintenance activities. Some of the new additions in the Second Edition include: New research and applied achievements in power system risk assessment A discussion of correlation models in risk evaluation How to apply risk assessment to renewable energy sources and smart grids Asset management based on condition monitoring and risk evaluation Voltage instability risk assessment and its application to system planning The book includes theoretical methods and actual industrial applications. It offers an extensive discussion of component and system models, applied methods, and practical examples, allowing readers to effectively use the basic concepts to conduct risk assessments for power systems in the real world. With every original chapter updated, two new sections added, and five entirely new chapters included to cover new trends, Risk Assessment of Power Systems is an essential reference.

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Gerardus Blokdyk Threat And Risk Assessment A Complete Guide - 2020 Edition


Did you miss any major Threat and risk assessment issues? Among the Threat and risk assessment product and service cost to be estimated, which is considered hardest to estimate? Who manages Threat and risk assessment risk? What is the Threat and risk assessment problem definition? What do you need to resolve? How will Threat and risk assessment decisions be made and monitored? This breakthrough Threat And Risk Assessment self-assessment will make you the accepted Threat And Risk Assessment domain visionary by revealing just what you need to know to be fluent and ready for any Threat And Risk Assessment challenge. How do I reduce the effort in the Threat And Risk Assessment work to be done to get problems solved? How can I ensure that plans of action include every Threat And Risk Assessment task and that every Threat And Risk Assessment outcome is in place? How will I save time investigating strategic and tactical options and ensuring Threat And Risk Assessment costs are low? How can I deliver tailored Threat And Risk Assessment advice instantly with structured going-forward plans? There’s no better guide through these mind-expanding questions than acclaimed best-selling author Gerard Blokdyk. Blokdyk ensures all Threat And Risk Assessment essentials are covered, from every angle: the Threat And Risk Assessment self-assessment shows succinctly and clearly that what needs to be clarified to organize the required activities and processes so that Threat And Risk Assessment outcomes are achieved. Contains extensive criteria grounded in past and current successful projects and activities by experienced Threat And Risk Assessment practitioners. Their mastery, combined with the easy elegance of the self-assessment, provides its superior value to you in knowing how to ensure the outcome of any efforts in Threat And Risk Assessment are maximized with professional results. Your purchase includes access details to the Threat And Risk Assessment self-assessment dashboard download which gives you your dynamically prioritized projects-ready tool and shows you exactly what to do next. Your exclusive instant access details can be found in your book. You will receive the following contents with New and Updated specific criteria: – The latest quick edition of the book in PDF – The latest complete edition of the book in PDF, which criteria correspond to the criteria in… – The Self-Assessment Excel Dashboard – Example pre-filled Self-Assessment Excel Dashboard to get familiar with results generation – In-depth and specific Threat And Risk Assessment Checklists – Project management checklists and templates to assist with implementation INCLUDES LIFETIME SELF ASSESSMENT UPDATES Every self assessment comes with Lifetime Updates and Lifetime Free Updated Books. Lifetime Updates is an industry-first feature which allows you to receive verified self assessment updates, ensuring you always have the most accurate information at your fingertips.

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Группа авторов Uncertainty Modeling in Dose Response


A valuable guide to understanding the problem of quantifying uncertainty in dose response relations for toxic substances In today's scientific research, there exists the need to address the topic of uncertainty as it pertains to dose response modeling. Uncertainty Modeling in Dose Response is the first book of its kind to implement and compare different methods for quantifying the uncertainty in the probability of response, as a function of dose. This volume gathers leading researchers in the field to properly address the issue while communicating concepts from diverse viewpoints and incorporating valuable insights. The result is a collection that reveals the properties, strengths, and weaknesses that exist in the various approaches to bench test problems. This book works with four bench test problems that were taken from real bioassay data for hazardous substances currently under study by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The use of actual data provides readers with information that is relevant and representative of the current work being done in the field. Leading contributors from the toxicology and risk assessment communities have applied their methods to quantify model uncertainty in dose response for each case by employing various approaches, including Benchmark Dose Software methods, probabilistic inversion with isotonic regression, nonparametric Bayesian modeling, and Bayesian model averaging. Each chapter is reviewed and critiqued from three professional points of view: risk analyst/regulator, statistician/mathematician, and toxicologist/epidemiologist. In addition, all methodologies are worked out in detail, allowing readers to replicate these analyses and gain a thorough understanding of the methods. Uncertainty Modeling in Dose Response is an excellent book for courses on risk analysis and biostatistics at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It also serves as a valuable reference for risk assessment, toxicology, biostatistics, and environmental chemistry professionals who wish to expand their knowledge and expertise in statistical dose response modeling problems and approaches.

13250.14 RUR

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Gerardus Blokdyk IT Security Risk Assessment A Complete Guide - 2020 Edition


Who is gathering IT security risk assessment information? Among the IT security risk assessment product and service cost to be estimated, which is considered hardest to estimate? How are consistent IT security risk assessment definitions important? What are the short and long-term IT security risk assessment goals? What sources do you use to gather information for a IT security risk assessment study? This astounding IT Security Risk Assessment self-assessment will make you the accepted IT Security Risk Assessment domain veteran by revealing just what you need to know to be fluent and ready for any IT Security Risk Assessment challenge. How do I reduce the effort in the IT Security Risk Assessment work to be done to get problems solved? How can I ensure that plans of action include every IT Security Risk Assessment task and that every IT Security Risk Assessment outcome is in place? How will I save time investigating strategic and tactical options and ensuring IT Security Risk Assessment costs are low? How can I deliver tailored IT Security Risk Assessment advice instantly with structured going-forward plans? There’s no better guide through these mind-expanding questions than acclaimed best-selling author Gerard Blokdyk. Blokdyk ensures all IT Security Risk Assessment essentials are covered, from every angle: the IT Security Risk Assessment self-assessment shows succinctly and clearly that what needs to be clarified to organize the required activities and processes so that IT Security Risk Assessment outcomes are achieved. Contains extensive criteria grounded in past and current successful projects and activities by experienced IT Security Risk Assessment practitioners. Their mastery, combined with the easy elegance of the self-assessment, provides its superior value to you in knowing how to ensure the outcome of any efforts in IT Security Risk Assessment are maximized with professional results. Your purchase includes access details to the IT Security Risk Assessment self-assessment dashboard download which gives you your dynamically prioritized projects-ready tool and shows you exactly what to do next. Your exclusive instant access details can be found in your book. You will receive the following contents with New and Updated specific criteria: – The latest quick edition of the book in PDF – The latest complete edition of the book in PDF, which criteria correspond to the criteria in… – The Self-Assessment Excel Dashboard – Example pre-filled Self-Assessment Excel Dashboard to get familiar with results generation – In-depth and specific IT Security Risk Assessment Checklists – Project management checklists and templates to assist with implementation INCLUDES LIFETIME SELF ASSESSMENT UPDATES Every self assessment comes with Lifetime Updates and Lifetime Free Updated Books. Lifetime Updates is an industry-first feature which allows you to receive verified self assessment updates, ensuring you always have the most accurate information at your fingertips.

6072.19 RUR

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Gerardus Blokdyk Information Technology Security Risk Assessment A Complete Guide - 2020 Edition


Are the Information technology security risk assessment requirements complete? What business benefits will Information technology security risk assessment goals deliver if achieved? How do you set Information technology security risk assessment stretch targets and how do you get people to not only participate in setting these stretch targets but also that they strive to achieve these? What are your most important goals for the strategic Information technology security risk assessment objectives? Who do you want your customers to become? This powerful Information Technology Security Risk Assessment self-assessment will make you the credible Information Technology Security Risk Assessment domain leader by revealing just what you need to know to be fluent and ready for any Information Technology Security Risk Assessment challenge. How do I reduce the effort in the Information Technology Security Risk Assessment work to be done to get problems solved? How can I ensure that plans of action include every Information Technology Security Risk Assessment task and that every Information Technology Security Risk Assessment outcome is in place? How will I save time investigating strategic and tactical options and ensuring Information Technology Security Risk Assessment costs are low? How can I deliver tailored Information Technology Security Risk Assessment advice instantly with structured going-forward plans? There’s no better guide through these mind-expanding questions than acclaimed best-selling author Gerard Blokdyk. Blokdyk ensures all Information Technology Security Risk Assessment essentials are covered, from every angle: the Information Technology Security Risk Assessment self-assessment shows succinctly and clearly that what needs to be clarified to organize the required activities and processes so that Information Technology Security Risk Assessment outcomes are achieved. Contains extensive criteria grounded in past and current successful projects and activities by experienced Information Technology Security Risk Assessment practitioners. Their mastery, combined with the easy elegance of the self-assessment, provides its superior value to you in knowing how to ensure the outcome of any efforts in Information Technology Security Risk Assessment are maximized with professional results. Your purchase includes access details to the Information Technology Security Risk Assessment self-assessment dashboard download which gives you your dynamically prioritized projects-ready tool and shows you exactly what to do next. Your exclusive instant access details can be found in your book. You will receive the following contents with New and Updated specific criteria: – The latest quick edition of the book in PDF – The latest complete edition of the book in PDF, which criteria correspond to the criteria in… – The Self-Assessment Excel Dashboard – Example pre-filled Self-Assessment Excel Dashboard to get familiar with results generation – In-depth and specific Information Technology Security Risk Assessment Checklists – Project management checklists and templates to assist with implementation INCLUDES LIFETIME SELF ASSESSMENT UPDATES Every self assessment comes with Lifetime Updates and Lifetime Free Updated Books. Lifetime Updates is an industry-first feature which allows you to receive verified self assessment updates, ensuring you always have the most accurate information at your fingertips.

6072.19 RUR

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Marvin Rausand Risk Assessment. Theory, Methods, and Applications


An introduction to risk assessment that utilizes key theory and state-of-the-art applications With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline the overall risk assessment process, and a discussion of accident models and accident causation offers readers new insights into how and why accidents occur to help them make better assessments. Risk Assessment Methods and Applications carefully describes the most relevant methods for risk assessment, including preliminary hazard analysis, HAZOP, fault tree analysis, and event tree analysis. Here, each method is accompanied by a self-contained description as well as workflow diagrams and worksheets that illustrate the use of discussed techniques. Important problem areas in risk assessment, such as barriers and barrier analysis, human errors, and human reliability, are discussed along with uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Each chapter concludes with a listing of resources for further study of the topic, and detailed appendices outline main results from probability and statistics, related formulas, and a listing of key terms used in risk assessment. A related website features problems that allow readers to test their comprehension of the presented material and supplemental slides to facilitate the learning process. Risk Assessment is an excellent book for courses on risk analysis and risk assessment at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It also serves as a valuable reference for engineers, researchers, consultants, and practitioners who use risk assessment techniques in their everyday work.

14101.94 RUR

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Limin Zhang Dam Failure Mechanisms and Risk Assessment


This book integrates the physical processes of dam breaching and the mathematical aspects of risk assessment in a concise manner • The first book that introduces the causes, processes and consequences of dam failures • Integrates the physical processes of dam breaching and the mathematical aspects of risk assessment in a concise manner • Emphasizes integrating theory and practice to better demonstrate the application of risk assessment and decision methodologies to real cases • Intends to formulate dam-breaching emergency management steps in a scientific structure

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Lutz Edler Recent Advances in Quantitative Methods in Cancer and Human Health Risk Assessment


Human health risk assessment involves the measuring of risk of exposure to disease, with a view to improving disease prevention. Mathematical, biological, statistical, and computational methods play a key role in exposure assessment, hazard assessment and identification, and dose-response modelling. Recent Advances in Quantitative Methods in Cancer and Human Health Risk Assessment is a comprehensive text that accounts for the wealth of new biological data as well as new biological, toxicological, and medical approaches adopted in risk assessment. It provides an authoritative compendium of state-of-the-art methods proposed and used, featuring contributions from eminent authors with varied experience from academia, government, and industry. Provides a comprehensive summary of currently available quantitative methods for risk assessment of both cancer and non-cancer problems. Describes the applications and the limitations of current mathematical modelling and statistical analysis methods (classical and Bayesian). Includes an extensive introduction and discussion to each chapter. Features detailed studies of risk assessments using biologically-based modelling approaches. Discusses the varying computational aspects of the methods proposed. Provides a global perspective on human health risk assessment by featuring case studies from a wide range of countries. Features an extensive bibliography with links to relevant background information within each chapter. Recent Advances in Quantitative Methods in Cancer and Human Health Risk Assessment will appeal to researchers and practitioners in public health & epidemiology, and postgraduate students alike. It will also be of interest to professionals working in risk assessment agencies.

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David Fischer Pesticide Risk Assessment for Pollinators


Pollinators play a vital role in ecosystem health and are essential to ensuring food security. With declines in both managed and wild pollinator populations in recent years, scientists and regulators have sought answers to this problem and have explored implementing steps to protect pollinator populations now and for the future. Pesticide Risk Assessment for Pollinators focuses on the role pesticides play in impacting bee populations and looks to develop a risk assessment process, along with the data to inform that process, to better assess the potential risks that can accompany the use of pesticide products. Pesticide Risk Assessment for Pollinators opens with two chapters that provide a biological background of both Apis and non-Apis species of pollinators. Chapters then present an overview of the general regulatory risk assessment process and decision-making processes. The book then discusses the core elements of a risk assessment, including exposure estimation, laboratory testing, and field testing. The book concludes with chapters on statistical and modeling tools, and proposed additional research that may be useful in developing the ability to assess the impacts of pesticide use on pollinator populations. Summarizing the current state of the science surrounding risk assessment for Apis and non-Apis species, Pesticide Risk Assessment for Pollinators is a timely work that will be of great use to the environmental science and agricultural research communities. Assesses pesticide risk to native and managed pollinators Summarizes the state of the science in toxicity testing and risk assessment Provides valuable biological overviews of both Apis and non-Apis pollinators Develops a plausible overall risk assessment framework for regulatory decision making Looks towards a globally harmonized approach for pollinator toxicity and risk assessment

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